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System Reliability Analysis Method Based on Parametric Probability Box Model
Author:
  • LIU Haibo1,2,3†,LAI Wen2,LUO Weifeng1,3,ZHANG Shufeng4,DU Chong3,TANG Jiachang5,LIU Binyuan2

    LIU Haibo1,2,3†,LAI Wen2,LUO Weifeng1,3,ZHANG Shufeng4,DU Chong3,TANG Jiachang5,LIU Binyuan2

    (1.College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China; 2.Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Health Maintenance for Mechanical Equipment, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China; 3.Hunan Vanguard Group Co.,Ltd., Changsha 410100, China; 4.College of Intelligence Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China; 5.School of Mechanical Engineering, Hunan University of Technology, Zhuzhou 412007, China)
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    Abstract:

    An efficient system reliability analysis method with a parametric probability box (p-box) model is proposed to solve the problem that the mixture of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty exists in mechanical systems. Firstly, the minimum reliability index of the single failure mode is obtained based on the sequential iteration decoupling method. Then, aiming at the multiple failure modes problem under the mixture of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, the system reliability analysis model is established based on the parametric p-box uncertainty. Considering the correlation among the failure modes, the correlation coefficient matrix between each failure mode is calculated by the linear correlation degree analysis method. Finally, a reliability calculation method for both series and parallel systems is proposed, which has high reliability calculation efficiency and can meet the practical engineering requirements compared with the traditional double-loop Monte Carlo sampling method.

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  • Online: March 04,2025