Analysis of Wind Speed Distribution Probability in Southeastern Coastal of China Based on Generalized Unified Probability Plot

DOI：

 作者 单位 林立1，2，陈政清1，洪华生3，华旭刚1，夏丹丹2，王淮峰2，胡海涛2 （1.湖南大学 土木工程学院，湖南 长沙410082； 2.厦门理工学院 海西风工程研究中心，福建 厦门 361024； 3.加州大学欧文分校 土木和环境工程系，加利福尼亚 尔湾 92697）

传统的概率分布选择方法是基于观测数据在假设分布概率纸上进行绘制，由于受到概率纸的限制无法进行直接比对分析. 本文提出了一种新的广义统一概率图（GUPP）方法，通过Rosenblatt变换，将假设分布转换到统一概率纸上进行直观比对，并提出基于GUPP的拟合优度快速检验方法及参数，该方法可用于大数据量和大范围假设概率分布的快速拟合和检验. 采用本文方法对厦门地区1953-2015年采集的实时风速数据进行统计分析及拟合，结果显示Pearson-Ⅲ分布可以更好地模拟厦门地区年10 min平均最大风速的分布规律，以此更准确地确定厦门地区基于不同回归期的设计最大风速.

The traditional probability distribution selection method is based on the observation data and plotted on the probability paper of a hypothetical distribution, which cannot conduct the direct comparison analysis due to the limitation of the probability paper. In this paper, a new generalized unified probability plot (GUPP) method is proposed. Through the Rosenblatt transform, the hypothesis distribution is transformed into a unified probability paper for visual comparison, and an efficient test method and comparison parameters are proposed based on GUPP which can be used for quick fitting and testing of large data volumes and large-scale hypothetical probability distributions. In this research, the proposed method is also used to statistically analyze and fit the real-time wind speed data collected in Xiamen from 1953 to 2015. The results show that the Pearson-Ⅲ distribution is better for annual average maximum 10-minute wind speed in Xiamen and for determining the maximum wind speed for structural design in Xiamen from different regression periods.