+高级检索
基于跳跃厚尾随机波动模型的股市波动研究
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:


Analysis on Stock Market Volatility by Using Stochastic Volatility Models with Fat-tailed Distributions and Jumps
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    通过对4个不同SV模型对比分析,试图了解股市收益序列中具有较大波动幅度的极端实现值能够被解释为一个非高斯分布的尾部行为,还是高斯扩散中一个跳跃组分的叠加,抑或是这两种设定同时起作用.采用两种具有不同波动程度的上证综指日收益数据进行的实证研究发现,我国股市日收益序列不仅存在显著的尖峰(厚尾)特征,而且波动持续性较低,以及受政府政策影响较多.此外,两组收益数据所对应模型的实证比较发现,跳跃设定有助于SV模型描述波动剧烈的收益序列,但却不适合波动平缓的收益序列.

    Abstract:

    By comparing four different stochastic volatility models, this paper attempted to find out whether the extreme realizations out of a stock market return time series can be interpreted as a tail behavior of a non-Gaussian distribution, or as the superimposition of a jump component on a Gaussian diffusion, or as a phenomenon in which both forces are at work within the same data generating process. An empirical study of Shanghai stock composition index daily returns data shows that China's Shanghai stock market volatility is characterized by obvious leptokurtic (fat-tail) and lower persistence. In addition, the jump parameters can be estimated precisely due to enough excess returns, which means the stock market is heavily affected by various related government policies. And model comparisons between the two return series show that SV models with a jump component can sufficiently describe a return time series with dramatic moves, not one with mild volatility.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
文章指标
  • PDF下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 摘要点击次数:
  • 引用次数:
引用本文

刘潭秋,刘再明.基于跳跃厚尾随机波动模型的股市波动研究[J].湖南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,39(11):104~108

复制
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期:
作者稿件一经被我刊录用,如无特别声明,即视作同意授予我刊论文整体的全部复制传播的权利,包括但不限于复制权、发行权、信息网络传播权、广播权、表演权、翻译权、汇编权、改编权等著作使用权转让给我刊,我刊有权根据工作需要,允许合作的数据库、新媒体平台及其他数字平台进行数字传播和国际传播等。特此声明。
关闭