A quantile regression model was established based on spline estimation. Based on the output data of photovoltaic panel,the curve of power was fitted,which was compared with ordinary least squares regression model and simple quantile regression model. The results show that the quantile regression model can give much more accurate and effective analysis on the influence of relative factors on the output power of photovoltaic panels,improve the efficiency of solar energy,provide the complete distribution of output power,and reduce the negative impact of photovoltaic panel when connected to the grid.