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基于参数化概率盒模型的系统可靠性分析方法
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System Reliability Analysis Method Based on Parametric Probability Box Model
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  • LIU Haibo1,2,3†,LAI Wen2,LUO Weifeng1,3,ZHANG Shufeng4,DU Chong3,TANG Jiachang5,LIU Binyuan2

    LIU Haibo1,2,3†,LAI Wen2,LUO Weifeng1,3,ZHANG Shufeng4,DU Chong3,TANG Jiachang5,LIU Binyuan2

    (1.College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China; 2.Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Health Maintenance for Mechanical Equipment, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China; 3.Hunan Vanguard Group Co.,Ltd., Changsha 410100, China; 4.College of Intelligence Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China; 5.School of Mechanical Engineering, Hunan University of Technology, Zhuzhou 412007, China)
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    摘要:

    针对机械系统存在的一类随机和认知不确定性混合的问题,提出一种基于参数化概率盒(probability box, p-box)模型的系统可靠性分析方法. 基于序列迭代解耦方法获得单失效模式的最小可靠度指标;针对随机与认知不确定性混合的多失效模式问题,建立基于参数化p-box不确定性的系统可靠性分析模型;考虑各失效模式之间的相关性,通过线性相关度分析方法计算得到各失效模式间的相关系数矩阵;提出串联系统和并联系统可靠性求解方法,与传统双层蒙特卡罗采样方法相比,本文方法具有较高的系统可靠性计算效率,能够满足实际工程需求.

    Abstract:

    An efficient system reliability analysis method with a parametric probability box (p-box) model is proposed to solve the problem that the mixture of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty exists in mechanical systems. Firstly, the minimum reliability index of the single failure mode is obtained based on the sequential iteration decoupling method. Then, aiming at the multiple failure modes problem under the mixture of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, the system reliability analysis model is established based on the parametric p-box uncertainty. Considering the correlation among the failure modes, the correlation coefficient matrix between each failure mode is calculated by the linear correlation degree analysis method. Finally, a reliability calculation method for both series and parallel systems is proposed, which has high reliability calculation efficiency and can meet the practical engineering requirements compared with the traditional double-loop Monte Carlo sampling method.

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刘海波 ?,赖文 ,罗伟峰 ,张书锋 ,杜冲 ,唐嘉昌 ,刘斌元 .基于参数化概率盒模型的系统可靠性分析方法[J].湖南大学学报:自然科学版,2025,52(2):122~132

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-03-04
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