A method for the tendency prediction of collapse-landslide caused by earthquake was developed, which meets the precision requirement of railway location principle stage. Based on the theory of the erosion cycle (youth-maturity-old age), this paper discussed the sequence of within-reaching-deviation from the critical slope in one ideal cycle, then put forward the principle that the tendency prediction of collapse-landslide induced by earthquake could be estimated by judging the development stage of the drainage basin. Based on the feedback mechanism of the valley and valley slope, the method of distinguishing different stages of the basin by selecting the profile feature was proposed. This method eliminates the spatial dependency on small drainage basins. At last, the method was validated with the field data of Yushu earthquake, Wenchuan earthquake and Lushan earthquake, which are the three strong earthquakes with M≥7.0 within 21st century in China. The tendency of collapse-landslide caused by earthquake is most serious when the Strahler's Integral is between 0.5~0.6. The gap to the value is bigger and the tendency is minor.