To study the influence of circumferential joint leakage， taking Shanghai Metro Line 1 as the engineering background and based on the finite element analysis， this paper establishes a three-dimensional shield tunnel joint leakage model and the iterative relationship between the joint permeability coefficient and curvature radius of the longitudinal settlement curve to realize the dynamic evolution of the joint permeability coefficient based on the joint opening size. The results of the dynamic evolution of the joint permeability coefficient were compared with the results of the constant permeability coefficient. The results show that the assumption of an unchanged permeability coefficient significantly underestimates the harmful degree of tunnel leakage and the dynamic evolution model of permeability coefficient should be adopted for research. After the leakage of the circumferential joint occurs， the ground emerges a settlement funnel， which results in the tunnel’s uneven settlement in the longitudinal direction. Therefore， the joint opens， and the lining flattened deforms. The principle of "early detection and early treatment" should be emphasized in dealing with the problem of tunnel leakage. The treatment work should be completed within 0.2 years after the occurrence of leakage at the latest.